On 11 September 1997, 21 years ago to the very day, the people of Scotland voted in a referendum to re-establish the Scottish Parliament. That referendum was a recognition of
“the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs”,
to quote the claim of right, but instead of celebrating on the 21st birthday of devolution, we are witnessing that “sovereign right” being treated with contempt, as we face the most crucial and damaging change to our lives and prospects that any of us here will have known.
Despite the overwhelming vote in Scotland to remain in the European Union, in less than seven months’ time the United Kingdom Government intends to take Scotland and the rest of the UK out of the EU. It intends to do so despite the vote of the people of Scotland against that step, despite the views of this Parliament and despite the fact that it lacks any workable plan and does not know what the consequences will be thereafter.
There is a vanishingly short window—a window of some 198 days—for agreement to be reached on the terms of withdrawal. In addition, discussions on the shape of a political declaration about a framework for future relationships are deadlocked by a UK Government that is unable to move for fear of destabilising the Conservative Party.
Of course, Brexit is, in reality, only the latest round in a 40-year-long civil war within the Conservative Party about Europe. The latest battlefield in that war is the so-called Chequers agreement. The EU has made it clear that the proposals on customs and trade in goods are not acceptable. If the Prime Minister cannot soften her proposals—at least 80 of her own MPs are prepared to die in the political ditch because, as far as they are concerned, the Chequers plan is too soft—the risk of exiting in March with no agreement on the terms of exit and no more than a commitment to further negotiations is very real.
There are some in this chamber who are trying to tell us that we have to choose between those warring factions, but that is a false choice. I want to make it absolutely clear at the outset that a no-deal Brexit is impossible and unthinkable, but the Chequers deal is impractical and unworkable, and a Brexit with next to no detail about the future relationship—a so-called “blind Brexit”—would be completely unacceptable, so we must find something better. What a mess the Tories have made of it. Tory members should be hanging their heads in silent shame in the chamber this afternoon.
The Scottish Government has always made a distinction between the politics of Brexit and the absolute necessity of doing everything that we can to ensure that there is no legislative cliff edge. We are committed, solidly and completely, to taking every action to ensure that there is as little damage to Scotland as possible.
The publication in August of the first batch of no-deal technical notices laid bare not just the appalling irresponsibility of all those involved, but the stark reality of what a no deal would mean for Scottish businesses and citizens. Reading those notices, I was struck again and again that there is a simple solution that would avoid all that damage—staying in the European Union. That should still be our aim, but we should also be prepared to compromise if others will compromise.
Accordingly, we will continue to make the case vigorously for membership of the European single market and the customs union, and to set out the implications of other options and the impact that they would have on Scotland’s future. In addition, regrettably, we will have to work as hard as we can to prepare for a no deal, should one occur.
In June, I made a statement in which I advised that the Scottish Government was intensifying its preparations for all exit possibilities in order to support the Scottish economy and our businesses, people and public services in what are and will continue to be very uncertain times. In contrast, as in the conduct of its negotiations, the UK Government’s readiness preparations have been haphazard and contradictory, and have massively increased the uncertainty.
I confirm that, nonetheless, the Scottish Government intends to take a coherent, consistent and collaborative approach to making preparations for EU exit. We will be straight with people, and I intend to communicate what the Scottish Government is doing to help Scotland.
Let me start with the details of our preparations in parallel with the UK Government’s arrangements. In June, I said that I would return to Parliament with more details on how we will legislate to deliver a functioning statute book. That is an unwelcome responsibility, but it is one that we will face up to. We must act just in case we find ourselves in the worst of circumstances. The chamber will understand that that task is a significant undertaking. The deficiencies in our statute book that have already been identified—the areas in which change must be made—are many and varied. We need to correct hundreds of pieces of legislation, not a mere handful. However, we have no choice, so as parliamentarians we will have a great deal of heavy legislative lifting to do over the next few months.
We have always said that the best way to go about that task is by co-operation and co-ordination between the Governments of these islands, as long as that co-operation can take place in a way that respects the principles of devolution and gives this Parliament its proper role in the process. Accordingly, where the policy outcome being sought is consistent across Governments, we will seek to agree approaches to the fixing regulations that are required. Of course, where the policy outcome is not consistent, we will pursue our own policies, which will require us to introduce our own secondary legislation. Even with that co-operation, the number of individual items for this Parliament to consider might be between 100 and 200 additional instruments. That is a heavy burden, but it could be heavier still if Westminster is not willing to co-operate sensibly.
I am writing today to the conveners of the Finance and Constitution and Delegated Powers and Law Reform Committees, in order to set out the Government’s approach and to agree a protocol between Government and Parliament to ensure that Parliament will be able to scrutinise effectively the items in question and the whole process.
This is not about where devolved competences will fall after EU exit. This is not about section 12 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, which this Parliament has overwhelmingly rejected and which this Government will have nothing to do with. This is not even about legislative consent motions. This is about responsibly discharging, as best we can, our duty to ensure a functioning devolved statute book.
Let me turn to some other associated issues. In writing to UK suppliers of more than 8,000 medicines and asking them to stockpile up to six weeks of supplies, the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care exposed the scale and complexity of the problems that would be created by a no-deal Brexit. Nonetheless, the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Sport and the chief medical officer are engaged in those discussions and will ensure the full involvement of Scotland in that system.
We are also constantly reviewing our planning for Brexit more generally, and after the next two tranches of technical notices are issued by the UK Government, we will consider publishing our own supplementary guidance if we feel that it would be useful and that it will not add to the momentum around no deal, which could be an unforeseen outcome. We are, of course, engaged in civil contingencies planning around any impacts that might have an immediate and direct effect on citizens.
However, in the event of a hard Brexit or no deal, it is important to realise that there might be some risks that will simply not be in the hands of the Scottish Government to mitigate. If there are customs delays at the border between the UK and the EU, food imports and exports could be delayed and disrupted. Exporters of perishable foods from Scotland, for example, could find that their products take longer to get to market, or are unable to get there at all, and cost more.
In the fight against crime, we stand to lose access to the expertise that has been built up in Europol, which is used to identify, track and disrupt some of the most dangerous cross-border criminal activity. The ability of Police Scotland to work with law enforcement colleagues from across the EU to tackle such activity can be vital.
If the free movement of EU nationals and the mutual recognition of professional qualifications were curtailed, that would have serious consequences for the recruitment and retention of public sector workers across Scotland.
The Scottish Government is aligning existing financial and staff resources towards areas with specific EU exit-related demands, and it is ensuring that we have the right people in the right places to respond. We have created a new directorate for international trade and investment, and we have strengthened our presence in Brussels, London, Dublin, Berlin and Paris to ensure that Scotland’s voice is heard in Europe. Every directorate of the Scottish Government is engaged in planning for EU exit.
The Scottish Government will receive £37.3 million of consequentials that will be allocated in 2018-19. The Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Economy and Fair Work has made initial allocations of funding, which to date total £26.6 million for resource and £0.5 million for capital, to support vital activities. We are prioritising areas that will be heavily impacted by Brexit, such as agriculture and the rural economy. We are also using those funds to ensure that we have the skilled staff in place to resource the delivery of a functioning devolved statute book.
It is unacceptable that Scotland’s public finances should suffer detriment as a result of Brexit, and we will continue to press the UK Government to ensure that the financial implications of EU exit and the need for appropriate future funding arrangements for Scotland are fully considered.
Preparing for an orderly Brexit has been, and will be, a major challenge in itself. That displacement of skills and resources will be mirrored across Scotland’s businesses and public services. How much worse is it to be forced to also address the prospect of a no-deal Brexit that threatens disruption on an unprecedented scale in peacetime? However carefully we prepare for a no-deal scenario, it will still result in chaos. Even the UK Government’s own no-deal plans will require a plethora of agreements with the EU in order to work effectively. In a situation where negotiations have broken down, we have to ask how plausible that is. I will keep Parliament updated on preparations and make a further statement in due course.
A no deal is not inevitable, but the Chequers agreement is not deliverable and a blind Brexit is not acceptable. Therefore, not leaving would be best, and the only acceptable alternative thereafter is continued membership of the single market and customs union, which is essential for our economy, our society and the people of Scotland. The Scottish Government will continue to make that case while fulfilling its duty of protecting Scotland as best it can from the threats of a Brexit—any Brexit—that we cannot completely ameliorate, that we do not want and that we did not vote for.