Thank you.
Momentum towards a new global climate change agreement is, mercifully, growing. At the United Nations climate summit in New York in September, world leaders committed to finalising a meaningful, universal new agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris in 2015, and to arrive at the first draft of such an agreement at the UN climate conference in Lima in December. For our part, the Scottish Government is committed to playing as full a role as possible in the international effort and to achieving concerted international action to bring down global emissions to a level that is consistent with containing increases in global average temperatures to 2°C or less.
Scotland’s domestic commitments are ambitious and remain an inspiration to many. Although challenges undoubtedly lie ahead, we can be proud of our achievements to date. Scotland is more than halfway to meeting its national Scotland-wide target of a 42 per cent reduction by 2020—and I must stress that latest figures indicate that we remain on track to achieve a 42 per cent or better reduction in Scotland’s emissions by 2020.
We have made significant progress towards achieving the low-carbon vision that is outlined in our second report on proposals and policies, as demonstrated in the RPP2 monitoring framework that was published earlier this year. In June, we announced a package of measures to keep us on track to meet the 2020 target, including the establishment of a new Cabinet sub-committee on climate change. Stop Climate Chaos Scotland said that our
“announcements show the government is serious about getting us back on track to meet future targets.”
In addition, our independent adviser, the Committee on Climate Change, has advised that “underlying progress” remains
“on track in most sectors”.
Despite the progress, however, I freely acknowledge that we have fallen short in meeting our statutory fixed annual tonnage targets. Nobody is more disappointed than I am with that outturn. The annual target report that is to be laid before Parliament later this month will therefore show that the tonnage of emissions in 2012 exceeded the level that is required by the annual target that was set under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 by just over 2.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
The key factor that is impacting on our ability to meet annual targets is the upward revisions to the baseline against which the amount of abatement and the performance against our targets are measured. By summer 2014, the baseline had been revised up by 5.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent compared to the data available when the annual targets were first set. That is an upward adjustment of more than 8 per cent—actually, to correct myself, it is 7.7 per cent—between the 2008-based and 2012-based inventories. Revisions are the result of improvements in methodology, as there is more accurate monitoring of emissions, and understanding of the impact of greenhouse gases improves over time in each successive greenhouse gas inventory.
A Scottish Government paper that documents the key reasons for successive revisions to the greenhouse gas inventory over the past five years was published earlier this week. As a result of those revisions, the fixed annual targets—which are not adjusted; they are set in stone, as it were—are now considerably more challenging than they were when they were set. Although we remain committed to delivering a 42 per cent reduction by 2020 and a minimum of an 80 per cent reduction by 2050, overcoming the methodological issues—which arise from improvements in data and estimation techniques rather than material changes in emissions—is a challenge that I contend needs to be addressed.
Our independent adviser, the Committee on Climate Change, has identified two basic options for addressing inventory revisions. The first option would be to adjust targets, for example by recasting them in terms of year-on-year emissions reductions or by revising them to allow for adjustments that arise from each annual inventory revision. The second would be to adapt to the inventory change by finding additional opportunities to reduce emissions that go beyond current and proposed policies. In effect, that would involve seeking even deeper percentage reductions than the 42 per cent by 2020 and the 80 per cent by 2050 that the Parliament chose to seek in 2009. I would welcome the committee’s views on the merits of those or other options.
I believe that, by demonstrating solid progress towards the targets set in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 and by acting as a progressive partner in international negotiations, Scotland can continue to be a model for the international community and demonstrate the opportunities of the low-carbon economy, which is creating jobs, investment, trade and growth benefits for the people of Scotland. We are by no means perfect, but in a world that faces an enormous challenge to avoid societal, economic and environmental damage as a result of uncontrolled climate change, Scotland—our country—has shown and continues to show leadership of which I think we can all be proud.