Indeed, convener, and thank you. I cannot profess to be as enlightening as the previous panel of scholars, who have real expert knowledge, and I will certainly replay the previous evidence session and listen to what they said.
Thank you very much for inviting me to give evidence in the committee’s inquiry on EU reform and the EU referendum. I note that you have taken evidence from a wide range of sources—not only academics but many other stakeholders—on EU reform and intergovernmental relations, and the Scottish Government looks forward to reading the committee’s report.
On my visit to Ireland last week, I delivered speeches at a conference organised in Dundalk by the centre for cross border studies and at the annual conference of the British Irish Chamber of Commerce in Dublin. The EU referendum and the consequences for the UK if it were to leave the EU absolutely dominated the discussion in Ireland. We should bear in mind that even though there is a general election taking place in that country tomorrow, the EU referendum almost eclipsed even that issue.
As we know, the Prime Minister announced last weekend that the referendum will be held on 23 June; he also announced that he would campaign for the UK’s continued membership as a consequence of the deal and the settlement that he secured at the European Council on 19 February. Members will not be surprised to hear me say that I am disappointed that the Prime Minister and the UK Government have chosen to hold the referendum so soon after the Scottish elections and the elections in Wales and Northern Ireland. It will cut across the election campaigns for devolved Parliaments, and I do not believe that we have sufficient time or space to make the positive case for membership. However, I will not dwell too much on that in my opening remarks.
As for the renegotiation, I am very pleased that a deal has been struck, but what is important is not necessarily the deal itself but the fact that it allows us to have the more substantive arguments about whether to stay in the EU. The Scottish Government will, of course, be campaigning for the UK to stay.
I will come to the outcome of the deal in a second, but it is important to say that citizens across the UK will not be voting on the deal—that will not be on the ballot paper. What is on the ballot paper is the question of whether we should leave or remain a member of the European Union. I think that there is a risk that all that will be clouded if we view this discussion simply through the prism of what the Prime Minister renegotiated.
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There is much in the package that we would agree with and some, of course, that we would not agree with. We support, for example, a competitiveness agenda, with its focus on completing the single market and tackling some of the red-tape bureaucracy that exists in the EU. On economic governance, we agree that the rights of countries outside the eurozone should be protected in EU governance structures, although, of course, not to the detriment of eurozone countries. It is important that non-eurozone countries do not face the costs of bailing out those in the eurozone.
On sovereignty, we note the exclusion of the UK from ever closer union secured by the Prime Minister. To be frank, I would say that we in the Scottish Government have never interpreted ever closer union to be about just a union of countries but about a union of peoples. The treaties allow for different paths of integration—a point that was made in Professor Keating’s submission—so I am not clear what this agreement adds in that area beyond setting out the UK for special treatment.
The Scottish Government’s reservations are on inward migration. It is critical to our success, our population growth and our economic productivity for the future that we are able to attract migration to Scotland. EU citizens have greatly contributed to our country and our society. Studies by University College London and many other studies have shown that the economic contribution of EU citizens has been substantial. Therefore, a seven-year emergency brake, or any other measures that would create a disincentive to come to Scotland, would be deeply worrying and deeply concerning.
We will be making a very positive case on the benefits of membership. We have to do so in order to remain within the European Union; the vote is on an absolute knife edge across the UK. We have seen recent polls that have put it within the margin of error. In fact, over the period from June 2015, our analysis shows that, on average, remain has had a small percentage point advantage over leave of only 4 per cent across the UK. In Scotland, there is a 20 per cent advantage for remain over leave. We will continue to make the positive case about the economic, social and cultural reasons to remain within the European Union.
That is not to say that we think that the European Union is perfect. We have our own reform agenda, which is shortly to be refreshed. We think that it will be no surprise to any committee member that we would prefer to have Scotland in the European Union as an independent country in its own right, but in the current constitutional set-up, we think that it would be democratically indefensible for Scotland to be dragged outside of the European Union against its will. If it were, the First Minister has been clear that that could precipitate demand for a second independence referendum.
However, let me make it absolutely clear that, without any shadow of a doubt, I want both Scotland and the UK to vote to stay within the European Union.