The last point that I want to touch on before I open the questioning out to colleagues is, obviously, forecasting. You say in your submission that you are looking for better interaction, “direct engagement” and “contact with the forecasters” and suggest that
“The SFC could have direct engagement with the forecasters in the early part of the year when the forecasters are developing or refining their models”
and that its
“role would be to challenge and influence the efficacy of Scottish Government processes and approaches”.
Moreover, you say:
“In a rational world, there should be one official forecast of tax revenues and there should be an independent assessment of that forecast. ... These activities should lead to a check on the official forecast. They should not become the basis in themselves for informing the Draft Budget.”
Finally—and your position on this has been quite consistent—you say:
“The SFC, as the ‘assessor’, believes it should develop the latter type of forecasts alongside research, modeling and analysis.”
However—and, as you will expect, I am going to quote some comments here—you will know that most of the witnesses that we have heard from are not of the same view. Instead, they take the view that the SFC should produce its own forecasts. For example, the Royal Society of Edinburgh is
“firmly of the view that the SFC should be able to originate its own independent forecasts of the future fiscal revenues ... Indeed, to fulfil its functions the SFC will need to be able to produce independent forecasts.”
Professor MacGregor and Professor Swales have pointed out that “international practice” suggests that where
“fiscal bodies do not provide their own forecasts they typically have access to sufficiently detailed independent forecasts”,
and the Canadian parliamentary budget officer has stated, if the SFC produces its own forecasts, it will allow Parliament
“to challenge the assumptions underlying the forecasts of the Scottish Government”.
There are loads of similar comments, which I will not read out, but I just want to finish with Dr Armstrong and Dr Lisenkova, who argue that the SFC should prepare its own independent forecasts on the basis that
“Producing a forecast greatly adds to discipline.”
Of course, not all commentators hold the same view—I note the views of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland and others—but the general thrust among your academic colleagues is that the SFC should produce its own forecasts. Why are you continuing to take the view that you should just comment on the Scottish Government’s forecasts?