The Scottish Parliament - Environment and Rural Development Committee Report

To consider and report on matters relating to rural development, environment and natural heritage, agriculture and fisheries and such other matters as fall within the responsibility of the Minister for Environment and Rural Development.

Membership:

Sarah Boyack (Convener)
Rob Gibson
Karen Gillon
Alex Johnstone
Richard Lochhead
Maureen Macmillan
Mr Alasdair Morrison
Nora Radcliffe
Mr Mark Ruskell (Deputy Convener)

Committee Clerking Team:

Clerk to the Committee

Mark Brough

Senior Assistant Clerk

Katherine Wright

Assistant Clerk

Christine Lambourne

Environment and Rural Development Committee

5th Report, 2005 (Session 2)

Report on Inquiry into Climate Change

The Committee reports to the Parliament as follows—

executive summary

Introduction

The world’s climate is changing. Greenhouse gases produced by human activity are contributing substantially to this. Recorded changes in global climate systems show significant changes in temperature, precipitation, ice and snow cover and sea level. Scotland’s records reflect the global trends. A wide range of economic, social and environmental impacts is already evident, including disruption to transport infrastructure, flooding threatening homes and businesses and changes in agricultural activity. All climate changes, including those occurring in countries far beyond Scotland, imply changes to the way in which resources and social and economic infrastructure are currently organised and distributed.
Prediction scenarios indicate that significant future climate change is likely in Scotland. Gradual mean change is expected, with potentially damaging changes to extremes and an increased probability of extremes occurring. Some of the predicted change is already inevitable, and the resulting impacts are likely to become significantly more damaging and costly. The extent of future climate change depends on the level of emissions in coming years. There is some uncertainty in how the global system will react. It is possible that abrupt change will occur, shifting the system into a dramatically different mode of operation.
We are now at a crucial point. As the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution stated, “If we go for business as usual … we are destined for something unimaginable.” Stabilisation of the climate system at tolerable levels of change requires at least a 60% reduction in 1990 CO 2 emission levels by 2050.
Climate change is an extremely serious challenge for all spheres of government, and for public sector bodies, businesses and individuals. A radical response on a huge, almost unprecedented, scale must start to be entrenched in policy now. A massive possibility for change exists at government, business and individual levels, given the right policy levers and leadership. 2005 will be a pivotal year in policy responses to climate change, not least because of the Prime Minister’s commitment to make it a priority item for the UK’s presidency of the G8 and of the EU.
The UK has a target under the Kyoto Protocol of reducing emissions by 12.5% below 1990 levels by 2008-12, and an additional target of reducing CO 2 emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. In 2000 the UK Government issued a programme setting out measures aimed at tackling climate change. The Scottish Executive also published its own programme, aiming to make an ‘equitable contribution’ to achieving UK targets. The Scottish contribution so far has been to reduce overall emissions by 5.7% between 1990 and 2002 and CO 2 emissions by 3.2% - considerably below the reductions achieved by the UK overall.
The Committee welcomes the Executive’s commitment to developing and revising its own climate change programme, but believes that the current rate of progress in reducing emissions in Scotland is inadequate to meet both short and long-term targets. The Committee supports the aim of achieving a 60% cut in CO 2 by 2050, and believes that very substantial action must begin now. The Committee believes that the launch of the revised Scottish programme must be seen as a significant event by the whole Executive.
The Executive should develop a set of clear and challenging benchmarks to provide a detailed route map to guide action towards this long-term target. It is essential that public sector agencies, businesses and individuals know what is expected of them. A comprehensive independent audit of progress under the Scottish programme should be commissioned by the Executive and repeated every five years. The Executive should also report annually to the Parliament on its progress towards meeting targets.
The Committee’s inquiry assesses the Scottish climate change programme, and identifies the policy priorities which should be pursued in the revised programme to improve the Executive’s response to climate change.

Energy

Emissions from the energy supply industry are the largest sector in Scotland and increased by 6.8% between 1990 and 2002.

Energy efficiency

It is estimated that approximately 40% of energy could be saved, and that half of the 60% CO 2 reduction target for 2050 could be achieved cost-effectively by improved energy efficiency. There are some examples of good practice and existing investment. However, it is a matter of some concern that the win-win gains that can be achieved through energy efficiency measures have struggled to gain a high priority for individuals and businesses, given the readily available technology and proven resource savings. A range of radical additional policy instruments is required. On a domestic level, such measures need to address both existing stock and new build property. For the business and public sectors, improved regulation and demonstration of good practice is required.
The Committee welcomes the Executive’s commitment to develop a Scottish energy efficiency strategy. This should include targets for different sectors at individual, public sector and business levels. It must also include targets for the development of small-scale renewable energy developments. It is frustrating that there has not yet been significant commercial exploitation of these technologies, which have the potential to link energy needs effectively with land use, transport and rural development issues. The Executive should examine how to encourage these technologies to be considered as real options and to secure the necessary investment.
The energy efficiency strategy must also include targets for an overall reduction in demand for energy, as rising demand threatens to undermine all other measures. The strategy should also capture the reductions in energy use which can be achieved by the use of alternative construction materials.

Electricity generation

Large reductions in Scottish emissions require change towards lower-emission methods of electricity generation. All the available technological areas – such as tidal and wave, biomass, solar, wind, and landfill gas – will be needed if Scotland is to meet its target of 40% of electricity demand to come from renewable sources by 2020.
Each technology has its own range of potential economic, social and environmental impacts. The Committee recommends that the Executive must, therefore, work with the UK Government to produce urgently an energy strategy that provides a clear vision of the energy generation mix required to meet emissions reduction targets, and a clear route map towards achieving that mix. Action to develop renewable sources further must not wait for technological development, and the Executive should look to establish appropriate incentives.

Agriculture, forestry and land use

Agriculture, forestry and land use form a very significant, and distinctive, sector in terms of Scottish emissions. Scotland’s proportion of UK emissions in these sectors is extremely high, and disturbance of Scotland’s high carbon-content soils has the potential to increase rapidly the loss of carbon in the form of CO 2 to the atmosphere. The Committee is disappointed that policy has not yet addressed this appropriately, and recommends that the Executive should develop a co-ordinated soil protection strategy as a matter of urgency.
Forestry has the potential to make a disproportionate positive contribution to emissions reduction by sequestering carbon during the growing phase, and by reducing emissions where biomass is used as a renewable energy fuel or timber as a construction material. However, the Scottish Forestry Strategy contains no emissions-related objective and no vision for the maximum potential contribution of forestry, despite indications that there is the possibility of an accelerated expansion in forest cover. The Committee wants to see much greater political priority accorded to the role of forestry in addressing climate change, and recommends a review of the Forestry Strategy to address climate change considerations comprehensively. Rural development funding, and other support mechanisms, should be examined urgently to assess how they can provide appropriate incentives to develop forestry for carbon sequestration and for use as a construction material.
Emissions from agriculture fell by 12.9% between 1990 and 2002. However, this reduction appears to be largely the result of factors unconnected to climate change policy and therefore relatively insecure. The Committee was concerned at the lack of leadership on this issue in the farming sector. Little consideration appears to have been given so far to integrating climate change considerations adequately into potentially useful agriculture policy initiatives, such as land management contracts. Climate change should be fully integrated into a review of the Scottish agriculture strategy to ensure that the agriculture sector can achieve a consistent reduction in emissions alongside other policy objectives.
The land use planning system needs to develop the mechanisms to ensure an equitable approach to the different regional social and economic implications of managing development to reduce emissions. Techniques to assess the carbon balance of different forms of development and different locations require further development. This must include travel plans and access to transport being considered as a matter of course, particularly for major projects such as hospitals and housing developments. The Committee recommends that the Executive should consider producing comprehensive planning guidance on climate change.
Progress on integrating climate change considerations into agriculture, forestry and land use policy initiatives has so far been very disappointing. The impression is of a small number of diverse schemes which have indirect, unquantified and relatively unplanned effects on emissions. Scotland is not yet on the road to making an equitable contribution to emissions reduction from this sector, far less the distinctive and disproportionate response that could be achieved. The Executive must urgently examine the contribution that various strands of land-related policy make to emissions. Despite considerable scientific uncertainty, there are many areas where progress should be made now. The Executive must develop this urgently, so that acceptable choices can be made and so that it will be feasible to develop a sectoral target for reducing land use emissions.

Transport

Transport is the third biggest emissions sector in Scotland. Emissions grew by 8.4% between 1990 and 2002 and transport is predicted to be the biggest sector by 2015. The Committee acknowledges that the Executive faces a very substantial challenge in reducing emissions from the transport sector, or even maintaining them at current levels in the short to medium term. However, it is essential if overall Scottish emissions are to reduce. The Executive has not yet made any identifiable progress in this sector towards an equitable contribution to UK targets. The Committee recommends that the Executive’s transport strategy must firmly establish the means for emissions reduction targets to be integrated explicitly into transport planning.
At present vehicle kilometres are predicted to increase by 27% over the period 2001-2021. There is no real strategy to reduce them and so the Committee recommends that a series of interim targets towards the goal of stabilising vehicle kilometres at 2001 levels by 2021 should be developed. The Committee believes that some form of road user charging must be introduced if the Executive is serious about managing demand, and requests that the Minister for Transport sets out his plans for this.
Aviation is also subject to huge growth predictions in the order of 3-4% per year until 2030, and is the fastest growing source of emissions. The Committee welcomes the Executive’s support for the UK’s aim of including aviation in the emissions trading scheme and encourages the Executive to pursue ways to make this as effective as possible. Any effective package of measures to reduce demand must take into account the likely disproportionate impact on the travel opportunities available to people on lower incomes. The Executive should also consider how rail services can develop the capacity to be an effective and competitively-priced alternative to short-haul aviation. The Committee welcomes the prospect of improved emissions data becoming available on a disaggregated basis for Scotland and recommends that the Executive should carefully analyse data for travel options such as flights in and out of Scotland and rail travel so that they can be understood in the context of transport emissions as a whole. This will allow informed decisions about alternatives as the Executive seeks to reduce emissions from the transport sector.
The Committee recommends that the Executive should develop the means to evaluate effectively the impact that infrastructure investments such as major road projects will have on emissions and on its target of stabilising road traffic by 2021. Where developments are expected to result in increases in traffic volumes and emissions, a clear plan should be identified for how other demand management measures can offset these increases.
A fundamental shift is needed in the approach taken by individuals to short journeys, as over 50% of all journeys are less than two miles. The Committee recognises that there have been some developments, but these must be enhanced radically so that a walking and cycling culture can be embedded in Scotland’s lifestyle choices.
Fuel efficiency has a significant role to play in reducing emissions. The Executive’s commitment to alternative fuel projects is welcome, but it needs to continue to work with the UK Government on a robust package of incentives that will effectively support their development. Programmes on new vehicle technology and conversion need to be re-focused and re-emphasised in order to make an enhanced contribution.

Business

Business emissions fell by 35% between 1990 and 2002. However, the Committee is concerned that the main business representative organisations are not focused on the impacts or opportunities associated with climate change. Understanding of, and planning for, the economic impacts appear to be weak. There is little evidence of urgent strategic or structured consideration of the implications. Addressing climate change should not be seen solely as a cost on business, and further work is needed to move business culture towards an appreciation of the opportunities and develop the common ground between economic goals and environmental considerations.
Reducing emissions should be seen as an issue of resource efficiency and economic competitiveness, offering a key win-win situation. Scotland cannot afford to miss out on the huge business opportunities that will arise as technologies, such as renewable energy sources, have to develop to a global scale to meet long term emissions targets.
The Executive should examine how advice and support to the business community can be enhanced and fully integrated into mainstream business support. The Executive must champion the culture change that is required and examine how it can incentivise investment.

Governance

A number of themes about decision-making emerged throughout discussion of the different sectors. What is meant by ‘making an equitable contribution’ to the UK’s targets has not been clear. It does not provide sufficient guidance for action, and progress is difficult to assess because of the complex mix of devolved and reserved policy areas which contribute to the target. Developing a distinctive Scottish emissions reduction target is complex. The Committee recommends that the Executive should set robust and challenging sectoral targets where adequate data is available. It should set out an urgent plan for how it will develop targets in other sectors, and from there produce a national target in due course.
The leadership role and potential impact of the public sector cannot be overstated. Emissions reduction targets should be set to ensure that climate change considerations are integrated into all public functions. Public procurement has a vital role to play in driving investment in areas such as small-scale renewable energy systems, energy-efficient buildings, alternative fuels, etc. The planning system must also play a pivotal role in co-ordinating policy, so that development is encouraged in a manner and in a location which reduces emissions, primarily by avoiding unnecessary transport of goods or people.
There is a substantial challenge for government in ensuring that policy signals from all sectors are co-ordinated and consistently drive towards a low-carbon future. There is little evidence yet of an adequate or transparent approach to this in the Executive, although there has been progress on integrating environmental information into policy-making. Its absence is likely to hinder progress towards targets. Without some form of carbon accounting it is not possible to demonstrate publicly whether accepting the emissions consequences of certain decisions can be positively argued on the basis of sound information. The Executive must develop an approach to integrating climate change considerations effectively into an overall sustainability appraisal.

Adaptation

Compared to mitigation of climate change, adaptation to the effects is relatively simple. However, the longer adaptation is delayed, the more costly and constrained it can get. Adaptation has so far been given a disappointingly low profile, and this has continued in the current review of the Scottish climate change programme. The Executive should now step up its leadership on adaptation so that it permeates thinking at all levels across all portfolios.
Scottish adaptation efforts to date have been concentrated on flood prevention and alleviation. They now need to move beyond this. An evidence base is now emerging that would allow a wider and more coherent response to the risks. The Executive should ensure that research is produced to allow adaptation measures to be more subtly targeted.
Wherever possible, measures to reduce emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts should be combined. There are some clear win-wins in doing so, for example, in building standards. The Executive must also focus on the economic opportunities associated with the costs of adapting to climate change. This perspective has been lacking so far.

introduction

The overwhelming scientific consensus is that the world’s climate is changing¹. Climate change is an issue which the UK Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, described as “the most severe problem that we are facing today – more serious even than the threat of terrorism”². Its implications, and the challenge of responding, cut across different spheres of responsibility and influence at the level of international negotiations, and in policy and legislation at EU, UK and devolved level. It is an issue which needs to be addressed by central government, local government and other public sector bodies, businesses and individuals.
Climate varies naturally. However, that natural variability has the climatic effects of human activity superimposed on it. Human activity contributes to climate change, mainly through emissions of a number of greenhouse gases³ , principally CO 2 . The magnitude and rate of the CO 2 rise in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution is widely accepted as creating climate change in excess of natural variation. The rate of CO 2 accumulation in the atmosphere appears to be accelerating⁴.
The following chart helps to illustrate climate change by showing the actual variation (and reconstructed estimates for earlier periods) in northern hemisphere temperature over the last 1000 years compared to a 1961-1990 reference period⁵.

Major policy responses are required to deal with the consequences, and to keep the impacts at a tolerable level. Those policy responses have been developing for several years, but the indications are that 2005 will be a pivotal year.
The Kyoto Protocol⁶ was adopted in 1997, but entered into force on 16 February 2005 following its ratification by Russia. The Protocol establishes legally binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gases. The reductions vary between countries, with the average cut being 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-12. The UK’s commitment is a reduction of 12.5% in emissions of several greenhouse gases. The Protocol is regarded as a starting point, and discussions are currently developing at an EU and international level on the policy framework to be pursued after the initial Kyoto period. In addition to the UK’s Kyoto Protocol commitment, in its 1997 manifesto the Labour Party made a commitment to a 20% cut in 1990 CO 2 levels by 2010.
The Prime Minister, Tony Blair, has indicated that climate change is the biggest environmental challenge facing the world and has made it a priority agenda item for the UK’s presidency of the G8 group of wealthiest nations this year, and for the UK’s presidency of the EU in the second half of 2005. The EU-wide emissions trading scheme, which creates a market in emission permits as a means of producing incentives to reduce emissions, started on 1 January 2005.
In 2000 the UK Government adopted a climate change programme setting out measures aimed at tackling climate change. The Scottish Executive adopted a similar programme as a contribution to the UK programme, focussing on devolved policy measures. The UK and Scottish programmes aim to identify the means by which the UK will deliver its Kyoto target and how the UK will meet the additional goal of reducing CO 2 emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2010.

In 2004 a review of both the UK and Scottish programmes was launched, with the aim of evaluating action so far and identifying options for delivering further reductions in emissions. The reviews indicate that Scotland’s overall emissions fell 5.7% from 1990 to 2002, compared to 14.9% in the UK, and Scottish CO 2 emissions fell 3.2% compared to 8.7% in the UK.
A revised Scottish programme is due to be published in the first half of 2005. As part of the review process, the Parliament debated climate change for the first time in January 2005.

The Committee’s inquiry

The Committee’s inquiry sought to examine the policies of the Scottish Executive for addressing the challenge of climate change. The inquiry focussed on a number of points, including:
- Assessing whether the Scottish climate change programme (SCCP) is contributing effectively to the fulfilment of the UK’s international obligations and to the delivery of the UK’s climate change objectives – especially in the context of distinctively Scottish features such as greater distribution of population, different physical geography, land use patterns, etc.
- Building on sustainable development research commissioned for the Committee by examining how the process of policy development in Scotland can ensure that policy across all portfolios is ‘climate change proofed’.
- Identifying the policy priorities (across different sectors and geographical areas) which should be pursued to enable Scotland to meet the appropriate targets for reducing its contribution to future climate change – and to adapt to the effects of climate change. What should businesses, public sector organisations and individuals be doing?
The inquiry aimed to identify a number of clear and distinct priorities which should be pursued to improve the Scottish Executive’s response to the challenge of climate change.

The Committee issued an open call for evidence, and received responses from a wide range of bodies (including multinational companies, public bodies and interest groups) and individuals. A number of respondents also referred the Committee to previously published material.
The Committee also took oral evidence over the course of five meetings from January to March 2005. It began with an innovative ‘round table’ approach, which produced a very constructive discussion around the themes of: scientific evidence for climate change; the impacts of climate change; mitigation (i.e. reducing the human causes of climate change); and adaptation. The Committee then took oral evidence from a number of representatives of key sectors: energy and energy-efficiency; public sector; business; land use; and transport. Many of these oral witnesses also provided written material and supplementary submissions. In total the Committee received written and oral evidence from 67 different organisations or individuals.
The Committee concluded its oral evidence programme with two sessions with Scottish ministers. Due to the responsibility for policy programmes and funding relating to climate change being spread across Scottish Executive departments, the Committee particularly welcomed the opportunity to take evidence from four different ministers.
The Committee sought to supplement this written and oral evidence by launching a public on-line discussion forum for a short time during the inquiry. This was advertised widely and 35 contributions were made.
The Committee would like to record its thanks for the co-operation it received from all those who gave written and oral evidence or contributed to the web forum.
This report cannot cover all the issues raised by this evidence in detail. However, full details of all witnesses, their written material and the transcripts of oral evidence are all available in Volume 2, which also contains a summary analysis of the contributions to the web forum. Neither does this report address all the possible factors involved in climate change. In undertaking a short inquiry the Committee sought to develop a general level of understanding of the issues, and some more detailed examination of some specific sectors of particular importance to Scotland. The aim was to examine where Scotland can make a distinctive contribution, and consider areas where the Scottish Executive has clear policy control.

evidence of climate change

Evidence of existing changes

The Committee heard detailed evidence of recorded changes in global climate systems. Many witnesses cited the evidence of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of significant changes in global temperature, ice and snow cover and sea level⁷. The 1990s was the hottest decade ever recorded in the northern hemisphere. The 10 warmest years ever recorded have been since 1990, and each year since 1997 has been among those 10. The average global temperature is now 0.6°C above pre-industrial levels. Arctic ice cover is estimated to be shrinking by an area the size of the Netherlands every year and snow cover has fallen by 10 per cent since the 1960s⁸. Sea levels have risen by 10-25cm in the last 100 years, driven by thermal expansion of the oceans and by glacial melting. The Hadley Centre noted that these global observations were reflected in an increase in average UK temperature of 0.5°C during the 20 th century.
WWF Scotland suggested that Scotland’s temperature records confirm the global trends⁹. There is evidence that these trends are also being manifested in regional and seasonal changes within Scotland. Scotland is becoming drier in the east and wetter in the west. Winters have become wetter and summers drier.

Projected changes

The inquiry also heard considerable evidence on predictions and scenarios of likely climate change this century. Many witnesses cited the IPPC’s prediction that average global temperatures are likely to rise by 1.4 - 5.8°C this century. The Hadley Centre has modelled predicted global and UK climate change based on various emissions scenarios – with the predictions varying according to whether the scenario uses low, medium-low, medium-high or high emissions projections. All emissions scenarios indicate potentially significant climate changes. A number of examples of possible changes in the period to the 2080s were cited in evidence to the inquiry.
The ranges and extremes that some witnesses quoted for London were significantly higher than expected for Scotland¹⁰. The Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE) states that changes in temperature, rainfall and growing season for Scotland are less than those predicted for England and very much less than those projected for continental areas and most of the tropics, because Scotland’s climate is strongly moderated by the influence of the Gulf Stream on the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean.¹¹ Nonetheless, the scenarios do indicate potentially significant changes in Scotland. The Hadley Centre’s scenarios are disseminated through the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), which has outlined expected changes in Scotland relative to the baseline climate of 1961-1990¹².
The predicted effects include:
- warmer winters and warmer summers, with fewer very cold days and more very hot days
- rainfall increases in autumn and winter (overlaid on the existing strong west-east imbalance in rainfall in Scotland¹³), and decreases in spring and summer
- increased intensity of rainfall events
- reduced snowfall
- possible increased risk of severe storms and changes to storm tracks.
- Although the models oversimplify variation within Scotland, changes are generally less pronounced further north and west in Scotland.
In evidence Dr Vicky Pope noted that in Edinburgh average summer temperature might increase by between 2°C and 5°C and the hottest day increase by 3°C to 7°C. She stated that models show that the 2003 summer, which was the hottest on record, would be regarded as an average summer in 50 years’ time¹⁴. Similarly, although the predictions are less certain than for temperature, it is predicted that by the 2080s Edinburgh will experience 30-40% lower summer rainfall and 20-25% higher winter rainfall, with an overall average annual reduction in rainfall. The RSE also predicted a decrease in winter snowfall of between 30-100% by the 2080s depending on the emissions scenario¹⁵. Dr Pope noted a general consensus that there is gradual mean change, but quite significant variability in extremes¹⁶. Both she and the RCEP noted that changes in the extremes would probably have the most significant impact and that the probability of extremes occurring is increased by about fourfold by climate change¹⁷.
Linking individual weather events directly to climate change is not possible. However, evidence showed a consensus that severe events may become more common in the future. There has been an increase in violent winter storms in Europe in the last 50 years, although this may be within expected natural variability¹⁸. The RCEP suggested that there was strong evidence that Scotland is likely to get more stormy¹⁹. However, even if the frequency of severe storms remains unchanged, a number of witnesses suggested that climate change is resulting in changes to storm tracks, which has a severe impact in itself. The Benfield Hazard Research Centre (BHRC) noted that “The sort of storm which would previously only affect Shetland is moving south.”²⁰.

Uncertainties

The range in the climate predictions is the result of different scenarios for future emissions trends and of some uncertainty in the reactions of the global climate to those scenarios. It is difficult to say exactly what will happen and when. However, the RCEP stated that “at the rate at which we are going, we will see severe changes in our climate system within the 20, 50 or 100-year timescale”²¹ and “Even if there is a continuum of effects, those effects will be very serious”²². The Hadley Centre noted that the modelling is still being developed and would improve in its ability to take account of the uncertainties. SEPA suggested that the models used so far are far too cautious²³.
Although models have indicated gradual change, evidence suggested that abrupt change could occur due to internal feedbacks and thresholds within the climate system which could shift it into a dramatically different mode of operation. One such example often cited is the possibility that the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation – the Gulf Stream – may collapse with the effect of dramatically cooling Scotland’s climate. Witnesses to the inquiry suggested that the Gulf Stream was not at present thought likely to be subject to sudden change²⁴. Some evidence raised the issue of the possible die-back of the Amazon forest after a certain level of warming, removing its vast capacity to absorb carbon and turning it into a net carbon source²⁵. Similarly, warming soils could cease to be carbon sinks and emit more carbon. The ocean’s capacity to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere may also decrease significantly.
The Committee believes that the evidence shows climate change to be an urgent and extremely serious challenge for government. The challenge is so great that a radical response on a huge, almost unprecedented scale must start to be entrenched in policy now. It requires political commitment at the heart of the Scottish Executive, and urgent application by policy-makers in every department and sector of Scottish government.

Impacts

As well as evidence that some climate change is already happening, the Committee received evidence that further change is inevitable. The persistence of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means that the effect of emissions already made in previous years has yet to be felt²⁶. So even if emissions were to stabilise immediately, we are already destined to live for some time with the impacts generated by past years of emissions. We must be able to deal with the likely changes that we can expect and also, as noted above, the likelihood that that the impacts will not be uniform over Scotland.

Scotland

Evidence suggested that there are a wide range of economic, social and environmental impacts already evident. SNH outlined the impacts on biodiversity, habitat, and disrupted ecosystems which are already evident in Scotland²⁷. It suggested potential loss of synchrony between species and food chain and disruptive changes in the distribution of species. Migration of non-native species (and diseases) and any increased structural damage to species as a result of intense weather incidents are also likely to increase potential disruption. The National Biodiversity Network Trust also highlighted an increased potential for the invasion of alien pest species²⁸.
The RSE noted a predicted increase in the length of the growing season of between 35 and 80 days²⁹. In some respects this can be regarded as a beneficial impact, and the NFU Scotland suggested that existing farming activity would be able to continue within the range of predicted climate change in Scotland. Its position clearly assumes that there will not be the abrupt changes discussed above. It stated that, to date, agricultural diversification had not been driven by climate change considerations³⁰ and that economics was the main driver of farming practices³¹. However, future agricultural activity will clearly need to take significant account of seasonal and regional shifts in rainfall patterns. The Macaulay Institute suggested that the impacts of increased winter rainfall and flooding would indicate that crop growing patterns should change in order to minimise impacts on soil, particularly given the increased likelihood of incidents of extreme rainfall and flooding (especially in the west) as referred to above³².
A number of witnesses also highlighted the potential for significant disruption and dislocation of transport infrastructure. A wide range of Scotland’s important transport corridors run close to the coast and there are also important coastal installations, including power stations³³. During the course of this inquiry Scotland was subject to severe storms which significantly disrupted travel on many main routes. A lot of emphasis has also been placed on the potential flooding impact of increased seasonal rainfall and intense rainfall events on homes and businesses as well as transport infrastructure, with recent incidences of landslips on major roads being highlighted.
The impact of relative sea level rise combined with storms creates potentially significant impact on coastlines and flooding of areas around estuaries. The BHRC stated that climate change scenarios suggested the risk of river and coastal flooding increasing between 2 and 20 times by 2080 and the risk of flooding from rainfall increasing by between 3 and 6 times³⁴.

Economic impact

While there is some work being done on the economic impact of climate change, the Committee received relatively little evidence on the overall picture. The BHRC provided some evidence on the actual and potential costs of flooding events. Moray Flood Alleviation Project noted that four significant flooding events in its area since 1997 had cost at least £150 million³⁵. WWF Scotland noted that “ There are people in Scotland who are living on a knife edge, simply waiting for the flood that will make their home or job disappear. On a global scale, the insurance industry is taking climate change seriously and saying that the problem is so great that the world cannot afford to let it get much worse.”³⁶ .
From a slightly different perspective, SEPA estimated that the value of Scotland’s direct ecosystem services to humans is at least £17 billion per year³⁷. No estimate was given of the potential costs of impacts disrupting those systems. However, the climate scenarios discussed above suggest that climate impacts have the potential to become significantly more damaging and costly.
On the face of it, some of the potential climate changes in Scotland appear less significant than in some other countries, and there may be a perception that some changes (such as milder winter temperatures) are beneficial for some people. However, reduced snowfall, for example, may have a significant regional economic impact through reduced winter sports tourism in some parts of Scotland. Also, any abrupt climate change would have more severe and rapid consequences. All impacts have positive and negative effects and need to be planned for because they imply change to the way in which resources and economic and social infrastructure are organised and distributed at present.

The broader context

Scotland cannot be viewed in isolation. On a wider humanitarian and security basis, FoE Scotland cited evidence that climate change could cause increased disease risks, crop yield problems in mid-latitude areas, significant water resource problems, and the potential for population displacement and conflict³⁸. Impacts beyond Scotland can also significantly affect us in direct ways also. Richard Tipper of the Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Management (ECCM) stated that, “If there are disruptions to the climate that affect global food supply and energy prices, for example, there could be important consequences for Scotland even if the climatic effects are not felt directly here.”³⁹ .
The Committee heard evidence of ongoing research on the business risks for the public sector associated with climate change⁴⁰. The UKCIP (funded by the UK Government and devolved administrations) has also developed regionalised impact data that will help businesses and the public sector to plan for the future. However, evidence from the CBI Scotland, Scottish Enterprise and the SCDI all suggested that there has been little strategic or structured consideration of the implications of climate change, or of the potential business risks and opportunities.
It is clear from the evidence to the inquiry that further work is required to identify the impacts – both positive and negative – and the costs of climate change in Scotland. It is also clear that efforts both to reduce emissions and to adapt to climate change offer the potential to identify business opportunities that Scotland can lead on and gain potentially significant economic advantage. These are discussed further in the following sections, particularly those on ‘Business’ and ‘Adaptation’.
While the Committee acknowledges that there is a range of views on the likely impacts of climate change, and some degree of uncertainty, the Committee has no doubt that these impacts will be extremely significant across all sectors of government and society in Scotland. Adaptation to the impacts is discussed further below (paragraph 264). However, the Committee is concerned that understanding of, and planning for, these impacts is at a relatively early stage. Work has started, but is not yet at the level where it has become a key issue embedded across all sectors.
The Committee recommends that the Scottish Executive should examine how it can further develop scenario planning in order to provide practical measures to guide action in all sectors. Understanding of the potential economic impacts appears to be weak, and the Committee is concerned that no analysis of this appears to have been done by bodies such as Scottish Enterprise. Engagement with this agenda must be stepped up if policy is to respond effectively and allow appropriate opportunities to be grasped.

Mitigation

While the predictions of future climate change include uncertainty, many witnesses emphasised that uncertainty does not justify inaction. The RCEP stated that “Science is unlikely to be able to identify a simple threshold level, below which we are probably all right but beyond which the system goes off balance”⁴¹. The level of change which is regarded as ‘dangerous’ is a socio-political issue rather than an objective scientific one. In many respects, the existing level of climate change is dangerous for some and the impacts potentially life-threatening. But there is a consensus that we are at a crucial point now. The RCEP stated that “ In the history of the earth, we are on the top of the climate curve—it is as warm as it has been in the past million years—and we are turning up the radiator. We do not know what the effect of that will be, but we know that it will be serious .⁴² ” and “If we go for business as usual…we are destined for something unimaginable.”⁴³.
Mitigation measures will not stop climate change altogether. However, evidence to the Committee suggested that a consensus is emerging of the need to stabilise global average temperature rises at no more than 2-3°C above pre-industrial averages by 2050⁴⁴. This is regarded as the best estimate of what may be required to maintain climate change at ‘tolerable’ levels. The Hadley Centre’s models indicated that this stabilisation requires atmospheric CO 2 equivalent concentrations to be kept as low as possible, and certainly below 550ppm. The RCEP noted that that this objectives is only likely to achieve international agreement in a model of ‘contract and converge’ – developed countries contracting emissions, allowing developing countries to expand and both to converge at the same per capita level⁴⁵. For the UK this implies a 60% reduction in the 1990 CO 2 emission level by 2050. The UK Government has committed itself to the aspiration of a 60% cut in emissions by 2050⁴⁶.
Some witnesses suggested that the aspiration should be for even bigger reductions. Colin Forrest suggested that the 60% target is “unlikely to prevent catastrophic climate change”⁴⁷. The RCEP stated “As to whether the target really should be 70%, who knows?”⁴⁸, and the Sustainable Development Commission (SDC) noted that Switzerland had set a target of a 90% reduction by 2050. The Commission went on, however, to suggest that the 60% target “shows that a great deal can be done, but we also need stages along the way to indicate when we will achieve reductions of 20 per cent, 40 per cent and 60 per cent.”⁴⁹ .
While it seems a huge task, no witnesses suggested that the 60% target should not be set. Many argued that it was achievable, but only if action started now. The RCEP stated that “… at this stage we can say that we cannot wait until 2045. Although we might change it later, we have to set the target now and say what direction we are taking. … By our actions we can limit climate change. However, we can do so only if we start to limit our CO 2 emissions now and in the next decade. ”⁵⁰.
In global terms, Scotland is a small country and a massive reduction in Scottish emissions would have little impact on global patterns. However, many witnesses to the inquiry noted that the UK has signed up to these obligations and suggested that Scotland has significant potential to contribute to this. There is widespread recognition that developed countries must lead the process.
The RCEP noted that there may be a particular difficulty in engaging with difficult decisions on uncertain decades-long issues in a democracy with elections every few years⁵¹ . It is a big challenge to develop clear leadership on climate change when the timescales are not immediate. Achieving the aspiration of massive cuts in emissions is a unique challenge to joined-up government and its ability to influence the public sector, businesses and individuals to change their behaviour.
Nonetheless, many witnesses also emphasised that a massive possibility for change exists on all sorts of government, business and individual levels, with the right policy levers and leadership. Scottish Power stated that in technical terms “there is no particular problem in achieving a 60% reduction in emissions”⁵². It suggested that the potential exists through different known technology routes such as improved energy efficiency, increased development of renewable energy, and so on.
However, the challenge is bigger than a one-sector fix, and bigger than a single policy or single solution⁵³. Some technologies are easier to deploy than others, and all have different impacts in social, economic or environmental terms. While it is also clear that there is a big potential to grow other technologies in the future, the evidence to the inquiry suggested that it is important to make political decisions and establish progress now.

Footnotes:

¹ For example, many witnesses cited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, IPCC (2001)

² Science magazine 2004

³ CO 2 is the largest by volume, but there are others such as methane, nitrous oxide and some other synthetic gases. Some are emitted in relatively low volumes but have long life-times in the atmosphere and have a significantly more potent warming potential per tonne than CO 2.

⁴ Global Commons Institute written submission suggested that the concentration increased by 1.5 parts per million per year in the 1990s, but by 2.1 in 2001, 2.5 in 2002 and 3.01 in 2003.

⁵ Reproduced from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, IPCC (2001)

⁶ The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

⁷ IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers

⁸ FoE Scotland written submission

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¹⁰ Written submission

¹¹ Written submission, citing the UKCIP climate change scenarios report

¹² Written submission

¹³Climate Change: Scottish Implications Scoping Study (Scottish Executive 1999), states that Scotland has a strong west-east precipitation gradient because of the prevailing moist westerly winds. Precipitation totals can exceed 2.5m per year in the west and include a high number of wet days, while sheltered eastern areas may receive less than 1m per year and have relatively few wet days. This general precipitation gradient is strongly modified locally by the mountainous landscape of Scotland. The existing trend is for increasingly wet weather in the west and dryer weather in the east.

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¹⁵ Written submission, RSE Position Paper No 1 – Climate change and the management of Scotland’s natural heritage.

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²⁵ For example, written submissions from SEPA, and WWF Scotland

²⁶ A range of periods were suggested – from 20 to 40 years – for how long into the future past emissions have already determined climate change.

²⁷ Written submission

²⁸ Written submission

²⁹ Written submission

³⁰ Written submission

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³⁷ In 2003 various SEPA staff published in the journal European Environment (Vol. 13, No. 2, pp 67 to 78) an attempt to apply to Scotland a methodology that had been developed to value global ecosystem services (the Costanza method – generating a monetary value from 17 ecosystem services over 16 habitat types). It suggested that this analysis would give a conservatively low estimate of the monetary value for the human requirements from the environment.

³⁸ Written submission

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⁴⁰ UKCIP written evidence

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⁴⁴ Hadley Centre written evidence

⁴⁵ Written submission by Colin Forrest, Founder and co-ordinator of FoE Tayside

⁴⁶ 2003 Energy White Paper pledged to put the UK on a path to 60% cut by 2050, with significant progress by 2020.

⁴⁷ Written submission

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